Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
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Daniel Kahneman

Thinking, Fast and Slow

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Assem Ramazanova
Assem Ramazanovaje citiralaпре 8 месеци
he gorilla study illustrates two important facts about our minds: we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness.
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoјуче
Speaking of Bernoulli’s Errors

“He was very happy with a $20,000 bonus three years ago, but his salary has gone up by 20% since, so he will need a higher bonus to get the same utility.”

“Both candidates are willing to accept the salary we’re offering, but they won’t be equally satisfied because their reference points are different. She currently has a much higher salary.”

“She’s suing him for alimony. She would actually like to settle, but he prefers to go to court. That’s not surprising—she can only gain, so she’s risk averse. He, on the other hand, faces options that are all bad, so he’d rather take the risk.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoјуче
“They have an illusion of control. They seriously underestimate the obstacles.”

“They seem to suffer from an acute case of competitor neglect.”

“This is a case of overconfidence. They seem to believe they know more than they actually do know.”

“We should conduct a premortem session. Someone may come up with a threat we have neglected.”
nestoriyagamon Gerto
nestoriyagamon Gertoje citiraoпре 3 дана
The essential step in the heuristic—the substitution of three-dimensional for two-dimensional

Найважливіший крок евристичного - підміна тривимірного на двовимірне

nestoriyagamon Gerto
nestoriyagamon Gertoje citiraoпре 3 дана
contains cues that suggest a 3-D interpretation. These cues are irrelevant

містить підказки, які пропонують 3-D інтерпретацію. Ці підказки не мають значення

nestoriyagamon Gerto
nestoriyagamon Gertoje citiraoпре 3 дана
which neatly illustrates the process of substitution

що акуратно ілюструє процес заміщення

Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 3 дана
Speaking of the Outside View

“He’s taking an inside view. He should forget about his own case and look for what happened in other cases.”

“She is the victim of a planning fallacy. She’s assuming a best-case scenario, but there are too many different ways for the plan to fail, and she cannot foresee them all.”

“Suppose you did not know a thing about this particular legal case, only that it involves a malpractice claim by an individual against a surgeon. What would be your baseline prediction? How many of these cases succeed in court? How many settle? What are the amounts? Is the case we are discussing stronger or weaker than similar claims?”

“We are making an additional investment because we do not want to admit failure. This is an instance of the sunk-cost fallacy.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 3 дана
“How much expertise does she have in this particular task? How much practice has she had?”

“Does he really believe that the environment of start-ups is sufficiently regular to justify an intuition that goes against the base rates?”

“She is very confident in her decision, but subjective confidence is a poor index of the accuracy of a judgment.”

“Did he really have an opportunity to learn? How quick and how clear was the feedback he received on his judgments?”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 4 дана
Whenever we can replace human judgment by a formula, we should at least consider it.”

“He thinks his judgments are complex and subtle, but a simple combination of scores could probably do better.”

“Let’s decide in advance what weight to give to the data we have on the candidates’ past performance. Otherwise we will give too much weight to our impression from the interviews.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 6 дана
Speaking of Illusory Skill

“He knows that the record indicates that the development of this illness is mostly unpredictable. How can he be so confident in this case? Sounds like an illusion of validity.”

“She has a coherent story that explains all she knows, and the coherence makes her feel good.”

“What makes him believe that he is smarter than the market? Is this an illusion of skill?”

“She is a hedgehog. She has a theory that explains everything, and it gives her the illusion that she understands the world.”

“The question is not whether these experts are well trained. It is whether their world is predictable.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 6 дана
The main point of this chapter is not that people who attempt to predict the future make many errors; that goes without saying. The first lesson is that errors of prediction are inevitable because the world is unpredictable. The second is that high subjective confidence is not to be trusted as an indicator of accuracy (low confidence could be more informative).
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 6 дана
“The mistake appears obvious, but it is just hindsight. You could not have known in advance.”

“He’s learning too much from this success story, which is too tidy. He has fallen for a narrative fallacy.”

“She has no evidence for saying that the firm is badly managed. All she knows is that its stock has gone down. This is an outcome bias, part hindsight and part halo effect.”

“Let’s not fall for the outcome bias. This was a stupid decision even though it worked out well.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 7 дана
Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 8 дана
“That start-up achieved an outstanding proof of concept, but we shouldn’t expect them to do as well in the future. They are still a long way from the market and there is a lot of room for regression.”

“Our intuitive prediction is very favorable, but it is probably too high. Let’s take into account the strength of our evidence and regress the prediction toward the mean.”

“The investment may be a good idea, even if the best guess is that it will fail. Let's not say we really believe it is the next Google.”

“I read one review of that brand and it was excellent. Still, that could have been a fluke. Let’s consider only the brands that have a large number of reviews and pick the one that looks best.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 8 дана
Speaking of Regression to Mediocrity

“She says experience has taught her that criticism is more effective than praise. What she doesn’t understand is that it’s all due to regression to the mean.”

“Perhaps his second interview was less impressive than the first because he was afraid of disappointing us, but more likely it was his first that was unusually good.”

“Our screening procedure is good but not perfect, so we should anticipate regression. We shouldn’t be surprised that the very best candidates often fail to meet our expectations.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 10 дана
rewards for improved performance work better than punishment of mistakes.
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 10 дана
“We can’t assume that they will really learn anything from mere statistics. Let’s show them one or two representative individual cases to influence their System 1.”

“No need to worry about this statistical information being ignored. On the contrary, it will immediately be used to feed a stereotype.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 10 дана
Subjects’ unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general was matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular.

This is a profoundly important conclusion. People who are taught surprising statistical facts about human behavior may be impressed to the point of telling their friends about what they have heard, but this does not mean that their understanding of the world has really changed. The test of learning psychology is whether your understanding of situations you encounter has changed, not whether you have learned a new fact.
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 10 дана
“They constructed a very complicated scenario and insisted on calling it highly probable. It is not—it is only a plausible story.”

“They added a cheap gift to the expensive product, and made the whole deal less attractive. Less is more in this case.”

“In most situations, a direct comparison makes people more careful and more logical. But not always. Sometimes intuition beats logic even when the correct answer stares you in the face.”
Daniel Odicho
Daniel Odichoje citiraoпре 10 дана
we? We must allow for that uncertainty in our thinking.”
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