Fooled by Randomness

are paid to read too much into things.

This text is a series of logical thought experiments, not an economics term paper; logic does not require empirical verification (again there is what I call a “round-trip fallacy”: It is a mistake to use, as journalists and some economists do, statistics without logic, but the reverse does not hold: It is not a mistake to use logic without statistics).

After all, this business of journalism is about pure entertainment, not a search for truth, particularly when it comes to radio and television. The trick is to stay away from those who do not seem to know that they are just entertainers (like George Will, who will appear in Chapter 2) and actually believe that they are thinkers.

to stick one’s neck out for a given belief

we underestimate the share of randomness in about everything

the right time and the right plac

The formation of our beliefs is fraught with superstitions—even today

Such confusion crops up in the most unexpected areas, even science

luck disguised and perceived as nonluck

quote that did not naturally spring from my memory