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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Fooled by Randomness

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veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
round-trip fallacy”: It is a mistake to use, as journalists and some economists do, statistics without logic, but the reverse does not hold: It is not a mistake to use logic without statistics). If I write that I doubt that my neighbor’s success is devoid of some measure, small or large, of luck, owing to the randomness in his profession, I do not need to “test” it—the Russian roulette thought experiment suffices.
veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
That all millionaires were persistent, hardworking people does not make persistent hard workers become millionaires: Plenty of unsuccessful entrepreneurs were persistent, hardworking people.
veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
the fact that every intelligent, hardworking, persevering person becomes successful does not imply that every successful person is necessarily an intelligent, hardworking, persevering person (it is remarkable how such a primitive logical fallacy—affirming the consequent—can be made by otherwise very intelligent people, a point I discuss in this edition as the “two systems of reasoning” problem).
veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
a matter of fact, I spent all my career attacking the quantitative use of probability. While Chapters13 and 14 (dealing with skepticism and stoicism) are to me the central ideas of the book
veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
Furthermore, as most successes are caused by very few “windows of opportunity,” failing to grab one can be deadly for one’s career. Take your luck!
veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
Scientists investigated half a century ago the phenomena of “experts” not learning about their past failings. You can mispredict everything for all your life yet think that you will get it right next time.)
veritasvosliberabitje citiraoпре 4 дана
How? Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance
jurnal369je citiraoпре 3 месеца
Aut tace aut loquere meliora silencio (only when the words outperform silence).
jurnal369je citiraoпре 3 месеца
am not capable of avoiding being the fool of randomness; what I can do is confine it to where it brings some aesthetic gratification.
jurnal369je citiraoпре 3 месеца
This book is the synthesis of, on one hand, the no-nonsense practitioner of uncertainty whospen this professional life trying to resist being fooled by randomness and trick the emotions associated with probabilistic outcomes and, on the other
jurnal369je citiraoпре 3 месеца
TAKING KNOWLEDGE
LESS SERIOUSLY
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
an increase in personal performance (regardless of whether it is caused deterministically or by the agency of Lady Fortuna) induces a rise of serotonin in the subject, itself causing an increase of what is commonly called “leadership” ability. One is “on a roll.
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
It sets a positive feedback, the virtuous cycle, but, owing to an external kick from randomness, can start a reverse motion and cause a vicious cycle
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
Social emotions: Damasio (2003): “One of the many reasons why people become leaders and others followers, why so many command respect, has little to do with knowledge or skills and a lot to do with how some physical traits and the manner of a given individual promote certain emotional responses in others.”
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
The central banker lowers interest rates, a recovery ensues, but we do not know whether he caused it or if he slowed it down. We can’t even know that he didn’t destabilize the economy by increasing the risk of future inflation. He can always fit a theoretical explanation, but economics is a narrative discipline, and explanations are easy to fit retrospectively.
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
Dress at your best on your execution day (shave carefully); try to leave a good impression on the death squad by standing erect and proud. Try not to play victim when diagnosed with cancer (hide it from others and only share the information with the doctor—it will avert the platitudes and nobody will treat you like a victim worthy of their pity; in addition, the dignified attitude will make both defeat and victory feel equally heroic). Be extremely courteous to your assistant when you lose money (instead of taking it out on him as many of the traders whom I scorn routinely do). Try not to blame others for your fate, even if they deserve blame. Never exhibit any self-pity, even if your significant other bolts with the handsome ski instructor or the younger aspiring model. Do not complain. If you suffer from a benign version of the “attitude problem,” like one of my childhood friends, do not start playing nice guy if your business dries up (he sent a heroic e-mail to his colleagues informing them “less business, but same attitude”). The only article Lady Fortuna has no control over is your behavior. Good luck.
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
The interesting thing about stoicism is that it plays on dignity and personal aesthetics, which are part of our genes. Start stressing personal elegance at your next misfortune. Exhibit sapere vivere (“know how to live”) in all circumstances.
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
The poem addresses Antony, now defeated and betrayed (according to legend, even his horse deserted him to go to his enemy Octavius). It asks him to just bid her farewell, Alexandria the city that is leaving him. It tells him not to mourn his luck, not to enter denial, not to believe that his ears and eyes are deceiving him. Antony, do not degrade yourself with empty hopes. Antony,
Just listen while shaken by emotion but not with the coward’s imploration and complaints.
While shaken with emotion. No stiff upper lip. There is nothing wrong and undignified with emotions—we are cut to have them. What is wrong is not following the heroic or, at least, the dignified path. That is what stoicism truly means. It is the attempt by man to get even with probability.
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
Having control over randomness can be expressed in the manner in which one acts in the small and the large. Recall that epic heroes were judged by their actions, not by the results. No matter how sophisticated our choices, how good we are at dominating the odds, randomness will have the last word. We are left only with dignity as a solution—dignity defined as the execution of a protocol of behavior that does not depend on the immediate circumstance.
Youje citiralaпре 4 године
My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.
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