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Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Skin in the Game

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anver666je citiraoпре 7 месеци
Avoid taking advice from someone who gives advice for a living, unless there is a penalty for their advice.
anver666je citiraoпре 2 месеца
By definition, what works cannot be irrational; about every single person I know who has chronically failed in business shares that mental block, the failure to realize that if something stupid works (and makes money), it cannot be stupid.
Assyl Zhakupovje citiraoпре 3 месеца
I also learned, in my early twenties, that the people you understand most easily were necessarily the bull***tters.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
Even economics is based on the notion of “revealed preferences.” What people “think” is not relevant—you want to avoid entering the mushy-soft and self-looping discipline of psychology. People’s “explanations” for what they do are just words, stories they tell themselves, not the business of proper science. What they do, on the other hand, is tangible and measurable and that’s what we should focus on. This axiom, perhaps even principle, is very powerful but is not followed too much by researchers. Revelation of preferences is best understood by the betrothed: a diamond, particularly when it is onerous to the buyer, is vastly more convincing a commitment (and much less reversible) than a verbal promise.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
A system with skin-in-the-game requirements holds together through the notion of a sacrifice in order to protect the collective or entities higher in the hierarchy that are required to survive. “Survival talks and BS walks.” Or as Fat Tony would put it: “Survival tawks and BS wawks.” In other words:
What is rational is what allows the collective—entities meant to live for a long time—to survive.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
This symmetry thing also concerns the alignment of interests in a transaction. Let us refresh earlier arguments: if bankers’ profits accrue to them, while their losses are somewhat quietly transferred to society (the Spanish grammar specialists, assistant schoolteachers…), there is a fundamental problem by which hidden risks will continuously increase, until the final blowup. Regulations, while appearing to be a remedy on paper, if anything, exacerbate the problem as they facilitate risk-hiding.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
Let us move to the present, to the transactional, highly transactional present. In New Jersey, symmetry can simply mean, in Fat Tony’s terms: don’t give crap, don’t take crap. His more practical approach is
Start by being nice to every person you meet. But if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
or Isocrates, the wise Athenian orator, warned us as early as the fifth century B.C. that nations should treat other nations according to the Silver Rule. He wrote:
“Deal with weaker states as you think it appropriate for stronger states to deal with you.”
Nobody embodies the notion of symmetry better than Isocrates, who lived more than a century and made significant contributions when he was in his nineties. He even managed a rare dynamic version of the Golden Rule: “Conduct yourself toward your parents as you would have your children conduct themselves toward you.” We had to wait for the great baseball coach Yogi Berra to get another such dynamic rule for symmetric relations: “I go to other people’s funerals so they come to mine.”
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
Via negativa: the principle that we know what is wrong with more clarity than what is right, and that knowledge grows by subtraction. Also, it is easier to know that something is wrong than to find the fix. Actions that remove are more robust than those that add because addition may have unseen, complicated feedback loops. This is discussed in some depth in Antifragile.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
Rent-seeking is trying to use protective regulations or “rights” to derive income without adding anything to economic activity, not increasing the wealth of others. As Fat Tony (who will be introduced a few pages down) would define it, it is like being forced to pay protection money to the Mafia without getting the economic benefits of protection.
anver666je citiraoпрошле године
But not to worry, if we do not decentralize and distribute responsibility, it will happen by itself, the hard way: a system that doesn’t have a mechanism of skin in the game, with a buildup of imbalances, will eventually blow up and self-repair that way. If it survives.
anver666je citiraoпре 2 године
Third, the book is about how much information one should practically share with others, what a used car salesman should—or shouldn’t—tell you about the vehicle on which you are about to spend a large segment of your savings.
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
The exact opposite of perfect ergodicity is an absorbing state
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
But if you keep playing Russian roulette, you will end up in the cemetery. Your expected return is…not computable
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
dding people without fundamental insights does not sum up to insight; looking for clarity in these fields is like looking for aesthetic harmony in the cubicle of a self-employed computer hacker or the attic of a highly disorganized electrician.
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
Mark and I have been frustrated by economists who, not getting ergodicity, keep saying that worrying about the tails is “irrational.”
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
almost all people involved in the field have made the severe mistake of missing the effect of the difference between ensemble and time
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
but it never hit me that the flaw in decision theory was so deep
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
no individual can get the same returns as the market unless he has infinite pockets and no uncle points
greatbooksje citiraoпре 2 године
He has hit an uncle point; there is no game no more
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