The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions, Rolf Dobelli
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Rolf Dobelli

The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

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Dra Gavrilova
Dra Gavrilovaje citiralaпре 10 месеци
econd, a broader selection leads to poorer decisions. If you ask young people what is important in a life partner, they reel off all the usual qualities: intelligence, good manners, warmth, the ability to listen, a sense of humor, and physical attractiveness. But do they actually take these criteria into account when choosing someone? In the past, a young man from a village of average size could choose among maybe twenty girls of similar age with whom he went to school. He knew their families and vice versa, leading to a decision based on several well-known attributes. Nowadays, in the era of online dating, millions of potential partners are at our disposal. It has been proven that the
Assyl Zhakupov
Assyl Zhakupovje citiraoпре 2 године
Locate your shortcomings and find suitable knowledge and methodologies to balance them. It takes about a year to internalize the most important ideas of a new field, and it’s worth it: Your pocketknife will be bigger and more versatile, and your thoughts sharper.

From the man with the hammer tendency.

Слободан Ђурић
Слободан Ђурићje citiraoпре 3 године
The media is not interested in digging around in the graveyards of the unsuccessful. Nor is this its job. To elude the survivorship bias, you must do the digging yourself.
Gbenga 'Gbliss'
Gbenga 'Gbliss'je citiraoпре 4 године
if you want to convince someone about something, don’t focus on the advantages; instead highlight how it helps them dodge the disadvantages
screenlee
screenleeje citiraoпре 5 година
Second, a broader selection leads to poorer decisions.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
In conclusion: When you hear stories such as: “I was sick, went to the doctor, and got better a few days later” or “the company had a bad year, so we got a consultant in, and now the results are back to normal,” look out for our old friend, the regression-to-mean error
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
If a person’s or an organization’s behavior confounds you, ask yourself what incentive might lie behind it. I guarantee you that you’ll be able to explain 90 percent of the cases this way. What makes up the remaining 10 percent? Passion, idiocy, psychosis, or malice.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
My advice: Forget hourly rates and always negotiate a fixed price in advance.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
Rather, you are the man with the red hat. Therefore, focus on the few things of importance that you can really influence. For everything else: Que sera, sera.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
True experts recognize the limits of what they know and what they do not know. If they find themselves outside their circle of competence, they keep quiet or simply say, “I don’t know.” This they utter unapologetically, even with a certain pride. From chauffeurs, we hear every line except this.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
You have to stick within what I call your circle of competence. You have to know what you understand and what you don’t understand. It’s not terribly important how big the circle is. But it is terribly important that you know where the perimeter is.” Munger underscores this: “So you have to figure out what your own aptitudes are
jaimeveyron
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produces a positive or negative impression that outshines everything else, and the overall effect is disproportionate.
jaimeveyron
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The psychologist Edward Lee Thorndike discovered the halo effect nearly one hundred years ago. His conclusion was that a single quality
jaimeveyron
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We often ascribe success and superiority where little is due, such as when we favor products from a manufacturer simply because of its good reputation
jaimeveyron
jaimeveyronje citiraoпрошлог месеца
extrapolate conclusions from there that are harder to nail down
jaimeveyron
jaimeveyronje citiraoпрошлог месеца
The halo effect always works the same way: We take a simple-to-obtain or remarkable fact or detail
jaimeveyron
jaimeveyronje citiraoпрошлог месеца
The halo effect occurs when a single aspect dazzles us and affects how we see the full picture.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
What makes the overconfidence effect so prevalent and its effect so confounding is that it is not driven by incentives; it is raw and innate. And it’s not counterbalanced by the opposite effect, “underconfidence,” which doesn’t exist. No surprise to some readers: The overconfidence effect is more pronounced in men—women tend not to overestimate their knowledge and abilities as much. Even more troubling: Optimists are not the only victims of the overconfidence effect. Even self-proclaimed pessimists overrate themselves—just less extremely.
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
What makes the overconfidence effect so prevalent and its effect so confounding is that it is not driven by incentives; it is raw and innate. And it’s not counterbalanced by the opposite effect, “underconfidence,” which doesn’t exist. No surprise to some readers: The overconfidence effect is more pronounced in men—women tend not to overestimate their knowledge and abilities as much. Even more troubling: Optimists are not the only victims of the overconfidence effect. Even self-proclaimed pessimists overrate themselves—just less extremely
Ramon Verduzco-oliva
Ramon Verduzco-olivaje citiraoпрошлог месеца
” What’s surprising is this: Experts suffer even more from the overconfidence effect than laypeople do
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