Project Decisions: The Art and Science

2. What is the chanc

that the project will be completed on time and within budget?

1. How much would the project cost and how long would it take, given all the risks and uncertainties associated with it?

Monte Carlo analysis can help to answer these and other questions.

Monte Carlo analysis is a straightforward approach for dealing with complex sets of project uncertainties

The value of new im

imperfect information can be analyzed using the Bayes theorem, which is a formula that revises probabilities based on new information.

Decision theory offers methods to incorporate imperfect information into the analysis and calculate an expected value for i

the Bayes theorem is a straightforward concept.

The formula itself is really very simple;